The Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) rainfall map for Australia covering the period November to January could look worse for the Hunter and Mid North Coast.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
White is never as bad a shade as the thick brown that covers regions in southern Western Australia and parts of North Queensland.
If we can receive average to slightly below rainfall during this period, which is what the map suggests, then we may just escape a summer like 2019/20.
Still predictions are just that and we are going into summer in an already very dry and bushfire prone landscape.
So far this spring there have been hundreds of bushfire across NSW including the Hunter and Mid North Coast.
The BOM says for November, below median rainfall is likely (60% to 80% chance) for southern and western WA, north-eastern NT, most of SA, northern, central and eastern Queensland, Tasmania and Victoria, with small parts of the tropical north very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be below median.
November to January rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for much of Australia, while small areas of NSW, including the Upper Western, North West Slopes and Plains, and Riverina districts, and southern Queensland are more likely (60 to 80% chance) to have above median rainfall.
Past accuracy of November to January long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for eastern and interior WA, most of the NT, and southern and western SA.
November to January maximum temperatures are at least twice as likely to be unusually warm for almost all of Australia.
November to January minimum temperatures are very likely to be above median for all of Australia.
The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and record warm oceans globally.
For Australia as a whole, September rainfall was 70.8% below the 1961-1990 average, the driest September on record (since 1900).
Rainfall in September was below average for most of the southern two thirds of the country.
For the 5-months since May 2023, areas of rainfall deficiency have developed in all states and territories, with large areas in south-west Western Australia, and along much of the south-east of Australia.
September soil moisture was below average (in the lowest 30% of all years since 1911) for much of Australia, away from the north and central inland areas.