The Liberal incumbent claimed 51 per cent of the primary vote for a 4.7 per cent swing, and 55 per cent of the vote on a two-candidate preferred basis in Saturday’s federal election to return to office for a third consecutive term.

The result gave Mr Baldwin his second highest claim on the seat.

There were predictions in the week leading up to the poll that Labor’s Jim Arneman could wrest the seat from the Coalition, but in the end even a surprise visit from Prime Minister Julia Gillard could not secure victory.

“I never take anything for granted, but I was confident of a good result,” Mr Baldwin said yesterday.

But although his win was convincing, he would have to wait with the nation to see whether he will be a member of a minority government or the opposition.

On Sunday, Mr Baldwin said it was too close to call.

Mr Arneman visited Mr Baldwin’s office to congratulate him on the win on Saturday night.

Despite the outcome, Paterson and Newcastle were the only NSW seats to minimise the state and national swing away from Labor.

“It is disappointing, but I am immensely proud of the team, it was a very successful campaign on the ground and I don’t believe we could have done much more than we did,” Mr Arneman said.

“I’m really humbled by the support I received at the polling booths, particularly on the issues such as health.

“There’s a great expectation in the community that those issues will be taken into the next term of government.”

In all of the 12 polling places in the Dungog Shire and Stroud areas, Mr Baldwin won the vote, in most cases convincingly.

In Dungog Baldwin received 930 votes with Jim Arneman 599.

The closest vote was in Clarence Town with Baldwin 538 and Arneman 533.

In the Stroud area (Stroud, Stroud Road and Booral), where Arneman was once served as an ambulance officer, he still didn’t outpoll Baldwin.

Baldwin recorded 668 votes with Arneman 434.

A full report of voting trends will be published in next week’s Chronicle after postal and absentee votes are counted.